Iran-US war: Four scenarios for what’s next as talks stumble

Key Points

• The four paths include a provisional ceasefire deal, intensified naval blockade, total collapse into air strikes, and regional mediation via Pakistan and Egypt.
• A provisional deal would let Iran regroup while the U.S. secures only a temporary, inspectable freeze on highly enriched uranium.
• Trump’s ‘no more Mr. Nice Guy’ stance raises the risk of a collapse that makes air strikes appear rational rather than reckless.
• Regional actors like Pakistan and Egypt are quietly brokering, but a limited non-aggression pact could leave core disputes unaddressed.

Full Details

The ISW April 17, 2026 report outlines four scenarios for the stalled Iran–U.S. talks: (1) a provisional deal extending the ceasefire to allow Iran to provide nuclear assurances while the U.S. secures removal of highly enriched uranium; (2) a U.S.-led naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz with reciprocal shipping restrictions that could provoke skirmishes; (3) a total collapse leading to Trump’s ‘no more Mr. Nice Guy’ stance and direct air and missile strikes; (4) intensified mediation by Pakistan, Egypt, and others to extend the enrichment moratorium and arrange transfer of HEU to a third country, potentially creating a limited non-aggression pact. Core gaps remain on enrichment duration, verification, and sanctions relief.