IMD Forecasts Below-Normal 2026 Monsoon, Threatening Agriculture and Economy
India's Meteorological Department predicts the 2026 southwest monsoon will be below normal at 92% of the long-period average due to El Niño conditions, potentially impacting agriculture and economic activity.
Key Points
- IMD forecasts 2026 monsoon at 92% of long-period average with ±5% error margin
- Below-normal rainfall attributed to prevailing El Niño conditions
- Last below-normal monsoon was in 2023 at 94% of LPA during El Niño year
- Skymet Weather projects similar shortfall at around 94% of LPA
Full Details
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its first long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon, predicting rainfall at approximately 92% of the long-period average (LPA) with an error margin of ±5%. This below-normal forecast is attributed to prevailing El Niño conditions, which typically disrupt monsoon patterns in India. The last nationwide below-normal monsoon occurred in 2023, also an El Niño year, when rainfall reached 94% of the LPA. Private weather forecaster Skymet has corroborated this outlook, projecting similar shortfall at around 94% of the LPA. Reduced monsoon rains could severely pressure India's agriculture sector, which remains heavily dependent on seasonal rainfall, and may hamper broader economic activity across the country.
Why It Matters
A below-normal monsoon could significantly impact India's agricultural output, food prices, and rural economy, potentially requiring government intervention and affecting inflation targets.
Get stories like this delivered daily
AI-curated news, personalized to your interests. Zero noise.
Start 7-Day Free Trial →More in Global News
US singer D4vd charged with murder stemming from death of missing teenage girl
Prosecutors say the singer, real name David Anthony Burke, could face life in prison due to the nature of the case.
Ukrainian drone attack hits Russia’s Tuapse port
Plumes of black smoke were seen after Ukrainian drones targeted Russia’s Black Sea port of Tuapse.
Iranian Envoy Summoned After Revolutionary Guards Fire On Indian Ships
The ships -- Indian-flagged cargo vessels - were fired on in the Strait of Hormuz on April 18. The incident occurred due to a communication gap between the Iranian government and the local unit of the Revolutionary Guard, sources said.
‘Israel never talked me into the war with Iran,’ Trump says
President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Israel never talked him into a war with Iran, pushing back against news reports and right-wing commentators who suggested Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu influenced his decisions. He wrote that the October 7th attack reinforced his lifelong opinion that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. Trump also claimed that "the results in Iran will be amazing" and suggested that if Iran's new leaders are "smart," the country could have a great