IMD Forecasts Below-Normal 2026 Monsoon at 92% of Long-Period Average
India's Meteorological Department predicts the 2026 southwest monsoon will deliver 92% of the long-period average rainfall, raising concerns for agriculture and the economy.
Key Points
- IMD predicts 92% of LPA rainfall for 2026 monsoon, with +/-5% error margin.
- Below-normal monsoon last occurred in 2023 (94% of LPA) during an El Nino year.
- Skymet Weather also forecasts below-normal rainfall at 94% of LPA.
- Deficient rainfall could impact agriculture output, rural incomes, and economic growth.
Full Details
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued its first long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon, predicting rainfall at 92% of the long-period average (LPA) with an error margin of +/-5%. This marks a below-normal monsoon, a level last seen in 2023 when rainfall was 94% of LPA, and is attributed to the El Nino phenomenon. Private weather agency Skymet also forecasted below-normal rainfall at around 94% of LPA. A deficient monsoon could pressure agricultural output, rural incomes, and overall economic growth, given agriculture's significant contribution to India's GDP and employment. The forecast is a critical early indicator for policymakers, farmers, and markets as the monsoon season approaches.
Why It Matters
A below-normal monsoon could strain India's agricultural sector, potentially leading to higher food inflation and reduced rural consumption, which may prompt government intervention through subsidies or relief measures.
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